North Central Research Station NFP 2000 - Assessing risk of wildfire and vulnerability of human populations and development in the North Central Region.

Introducing the Northern Research Station

The North Central Research Station and the Northeastern Research Station have joined to form the Northern Research Station. Our 20-state region spans the Midwest from Minnesota to Missouri and the Northeast from Maine to Maryland.

Our Research Programs in the National Fire Plan 2000

Assessing risk of wildfire and vulnerability of human populations and development in the North Central Region.

Topic(s): A-i Developing improved tools for risk assessment and decision support

Proposal title: Assessing risk of wildfire and vulnerability of human populations and development in the North Central Region.

Other proposals to which this is linked (Proposal code): NC 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 2.1, 2.2.4, 2.4, 3.2.2

Research Work Units: RWU NC-4153, Rhinelander, WI, RWU NC-4803, St. Paul, MN; RWU-NC-4401, East Lansing, MI, RWU-NC-4902, Chicago, Landscape Change Integrated Program.

Research or development question, issue, or need: This research will develop new approaches to regional fire risk assessment that couple ecological and social factors into a fire risk and consequence model, with an emphasis on reducing the potential for loss of life and property. The overall goal is to provide managers with a scientifically based decision support tool for prioritizing fire risk reduction activities in a regional, landscape, and local context. Specific goals are to: 1. Conduct a fire risk assessment within the 7-state region of the north central United States. 2. Develop methods of assessing the vulnerability of rural communities, dispersed primary and seasonal homes, recreational areas, and private and industrial land holdings with respect to degree of fire risk. 3. Provide decision support tools to managers for prioritizing locations and sequence of fuel treatments at landscape and local levels based fire risk and vulnerability of humans to loss of life and property. 4. Transfer these tools for applications elsewhere in the eastern United States.

The risk of wildfire within the seven states comprising the North Central region is high. This region has large numbers of fire ignitions, with more than 97% of all ignitions caused by humans. The extensive areas of fire-prone forest types, and the large number of permanent residents and tourists occupying these forests, compound the risk of fire. Moreover, fire suppression and forest management have led to uncharacteristically expansive tracts of fire-susceptible ecosystems with altered age-class distributions of short-lives species (e.g., jack pine and balsalm fir). These changes produced serious forest health concerns including insect infestations and natural senescence resulting in increased fuel loadings and extent of fuels, hence fire risk. The vulnerability of human populations in the North Central region is also high. Embedded in these pyrophilic forests are large numbers of rural homes and businesses that serve large populations of permanent and seasonal residents.

This research is responsive to needs identified in the Interagency (DOI and USDA) Report to the President in Response to the Wildfires of 2000. Recommendations included conducting research "regarding relationships between land management practices and the occurrence and intensity of fires," and "setting of regional priorities for land restoration, {and} fuels treatment…" This research will assist managers in making decisions for prioritizing treatments, and provide information needed for environmental analyses required under the National Environmental Policy Act.

Research and development approach: Conduct a fire risk assessment based on interactions of climate, ignition sources, and fuel type. Use multivariate and regression analyses of data on historical and modern wildfires, and ecological factors affecting the likelihood and potential extent of a conflagration. These factors include the spatial and temporal variability of macro-climatic gradients; meso-scale patterns in land use, road densities, landforms, and lakes; and fine-scale patterns in forest composition and patch size, topography, hydrography, and edaphic conditions. Georelational databases that will be analyzed include locations and extent of modern and historical fires, 30-meter resolution remotely-sensed vegetation (LANDSAT TM), interpolated climatic data, NRCS soil surveys, digital elevation models, roads, hydrography, and maps of the densities and locations of primary and seasonal homes, campgrounds, and other rural developments.

Movement of people into forested landscapes as seasonal or permanent residents is a major factor to be considered in predicting the risk of loss of property and lives from catastrophic wildfire. We will document current (year 2000) settlement patterns including housing and population densities across the landscape at the partial block group level using U.S. Census data. Partial block groups are subdivisions of counties based on U.S. Census block group and municipal area boundaries. We will also project current settlement patterns to the year 2020 using observations of past growth and models of population and housing density change. Settlement patterns and campgrounds will be overlaid with fire risk maps based on ecological factors and interactions to identify human populations and developments that are most at risk.

First year: Within Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, (1) Data assemblage and development; (2) Multivariate and regression analyses of ecological factors affecting incidence and extent of wildfires, (3) Production of first approximation fire risk maps, (4) Production of first approximation human vulnerability maps, (5) Delivery of data, maps, and interpretations to the fire management community.

Second year: (1) Further analysis and refinement of models, maps, and supporting documentation within the Lake States, (2) Completion of reports and publications on findings, (3) Recommendations on fuel treatment priorities.

Three to five years out: Complete first and second year tasks in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and Missouri.

Staffing needs: 1 Research Ecologist (GS 408-12/13); 1 Management Scientist (GS-12/13), 1 GS-9 Meteorological/Computer Technician, 1 GS-9/11 GIS specialist, 2 GS-4/5 temporary positions/data digitizing.

Description of skills required: Ecologist and Management Scientist with expertise in spatial analysis, GIS, risk analysis, and the ability to work with human demographers. Meteorological technician with expertise in analysis of climate data.

Potential Partners: National Forests and DNR's in each state, Michigan Technological University, Michigan State University, University of Minnesota at Duluth, Applied Population Laboratory at University of Wisconsin, Madison, Louisiana Pacific Corp, Mead Corp, Michigan and Wisconsin Timber Producer's Association, Sierra Club.

Leveraging: This research will build upon a Joint Fire Science Program funded research project that is characterizing historic and contemporary fire regimes in the Lake States ($300,000), and mapping landscape ecosystems of varying susceptibility to fire disturbance. Data assembled by the Great Lakes Ecological Assessment will be used (supported by previous NPR award of $337,000). Scientists in each RWU will assist in analyses and reporting.