North Central Research Station NFP 2000- Optimizing Fuel Reductions in Time and Space Using Spatial Models.

Introducing the Northern Research Station

The North Central Research Station and the Northeastern Research Station have joined to form the Northern Research Station. Our 20-state region spans the Midwest from Minnesota to Missouri and the Northeast from Maine to Maryland.

Our Research Programs in the National Fire Plan 2000

Optimizing Fuel Reductions in Time and Space Using Spatial Models.

Topic(s): C-i Reducing hazardous fuels and fire risk, assessment; C-iii Reducing hazardous fuels and fire risk, treatments; C-iv Reducing hazardous fuels and fire risk, ecological interactions; D-i Working with communities, social and economic systems.

Proposal title: Optimizing Fuel Reductions in Time and Space Using Spatial Models.

Other proposals to which this is linked (Proposal code): NC 1.4, 2.2.1, 2.5, 3.2.1, 3.2.2, 3.3

Research Work Units : RWU NC-4101, Northern Forest Silviculture, Grand Rapids, MN; RWU NC-4153, Landscape Ecology, Rhinelander, WI; RWU NC-4803, Social and Economic Dimensions of Ecosystem Management, St. Paul, MN; RWU SO-4106, Managing Upland Forest Ecosystems in the Mid-South, Monticello, AR.

Description: Research or Development, Question, Issue, or Need: An important goal of the fire management initiative is to reduce hazardous fuels and thus reduce fire risk. Two fundamental questions emerge related to this goal: (1) when and where should fuel reductions be applied in order to obtain the greatest reductions in fire risk at the lowest costs? (2) what are the ecological and social consequences of these treatments? These questions are best addressed at the landscape scale in which both time and space are considered within an analytical framework provided through remote sensing, GIS, and mathematical modeling.

Scientists within the North Central Research Station have conducted research to understand landscape-scale forest ecosystem dynamics in the northern Lakes States region. Advances in computer technology and scientific understanding have resulted in the creation of improved forest dynamics models. Two such models are LANDIS and NORTHWDS. LANDIS is a stochastic, spatially explicit model of forest landscape disturbance and succession. It simulates succession semi-quantitatively as tree age classes. LANDIS has been developed to analyze changes in landscape structure in response to various combinations of fire and windthrow disturbance regimes as well as with their interaction with forest management treatments such as those aimed at fuel reductions. The Northern Woodland Dynamics Simulator (NORTHWDS) was designed to model forest pattern and process for the northern Lake States at multiple spatial scales. This model represents a new conceptual approach to simulating forest dynamics by incorporating spatial attributes, multiples spatial and temporal scales, and by utilizing a hierarchical design to model development and application. Because processes such as tree regeneration, growth, and mortality as well as biogeochemical and carbon cycling have been incorporated into NORTHWDS, the ecological consequences of various fuel reduction strategies can be evaluated.

The probability of fire at any geographic site is a function of both the physical environment and related biotic factors. Abiotic factors include macroclimate, physical firebreaks, topography, soil texture, and physiographic features. Biotic factors include flammability of the vegetation, pattern of the vegetation, and the influences related to human activities (fire ignition, suppression). Our objective is to better understand the interrelationships among these factors as it relates to fire risk and fuel reductions in actual landscapes using LANDIS and NORTHWDS.

Research Issue: Changing land uses and fire suppression during the last century have greatly altered the "fire-probability pattern." Because of these changes, the most efficient strategies for deploying fuel reduction strategies are uncertain. Scientists at the North Central Station propose to use LANDIS and NORTHWDS to better understand the effects of past and current land use and fire suppression on fire regimes and organic-matter accumulation in a variety of forested ecosystems in the region. Specifically, the models will be used to (1) study the spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence and forest composition over the last 150 years in order to better understand fire risk as a function of landscape condition, disturbance ecology, land use, and fire suppression and (2) evaluate alternative fuel reduction strategies in real landscapes representing different levels of perceived fire risk.

Research and Development approach: Initial efforts to develop efficient fuel reduction strategies using LANDIS and NORTHWDS will focus primarily on areas affected by the July 1999 windstorm in Minnesota. Due to this windstorm, the fire probability for forests in northern Minnesota has dramatically increased. A concurrent study of fire behavior and fuel loading using the models will be conducted in the shortleaf-loblolly pine forest of the Mid-south. This work will be conducted by SO-4106 (Managing Upland Forest Ecosystems in the Mid-South) as part of an ongoing study on restoring mature shortleaf-loblolly pine ecosystems in southern Arkansas. Other northern and southern forest ecosystems will be considered in future applications.

Published information (e.g., Heinselman. 1973. Fire in the virgin forests of the boundary waters canoe area, Minnesota. Quaternary Research 3:329-382) as well as information available from the Great Lakes Assessment will be used to parameterize LANDIS and NORTHWDS. As part of this proposed project, a fire module will be added to NORTHWDS. In addition, the existing fire module in LANDIS will be improved. In addition to the ecological assessment proposed here, the involvement of social scientists is critical in evaluating alternative strategies for reducing fuel loads. In conjunction with NC 2.5, the costs associated with deploying a strategy as well as the social acceptability of a strategy will be considered. In their current form, LANDIS and NORTHWDS are research tools. New spatial models are needed to aid management and planning decision making.

The approach provides a spatial and temporal perspective for evaluating fire risk. This perspective allows more effective evaluation of alternative management strategies for reducing fuel loads and, therefore, for reducing fire risk. By applying NORTHWDS and LANDIS in concert with ongoing field studies, deliverables can be provided early in the funding cycle. Strategies (both generic and specific) for optimizing fuel reductions will be provided.

First year: Apply LANDIS to the Minnesota blowdown and publish the results as a case study.

Second year: Using the improved fire module in LANDIS and a newly added "generic disturbance" module in NORTHWDS, apply these models to evaluate strategies to reduce fuel loads in pine and oak barren ecosystems. Publish general strategies for dealing with fuel reductions in fire prone ecosystems.

Three to five years out: Provide guidelines for reducing fuel loads that are based on information about the ecological consequences of treatments, their costs of implementation, and the social acceptability of the treatments. Produce a new spatial model for planning and management.

Leveraging: Builds on previous development of spatially explicit forest landscape models.

Team Leader(s): Thomas R. Crow (NC-4101) Phone: 218-326-7110 Email: tcrow@fs.fed.us